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February 11, 2010 Provincial Update... |
| Published: Thursday, February 11, 2010 |
| The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province climbed 118 per cent to 4,619 units in January compared to the same month last year. |
On a seasonally adjusted basis, MLS® residential sales in the province declined 16 per cent last month compared to December 2009.
“Home sales in the province eased in January as a result of waning pent-up demand and eroded affordability,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “While low mortgage interest rates will continue to entice many home buyers through the spring market, consumer demand is expected to moderate from its frenetic year-end pace.”
The BC residential sales dollar volume increased 160 per cent to $2.27 billion in January compared to the same period last year. The average MLS® residential price climbed 19 per cent to $491,571 over the same period.
“Upward pressure on home prices, particularly in Victoria, Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, is beginning to slow as fewer home sales and a larger inventory reduce the chance of multiple offers,” added Muir.
For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, follow this link: www.bcrea.bc.ca/news_room/2010-01.pdf.
For more information, please contact:
Cameron Muir
Chief Economist
Direct: 604.742.2780
Mobile: 778.229.1884
Email: cmuir@bcrea.bc.ca
Damian Stathonikos
Director of Communications and Public Affairs
Direct: 604.742.2793
Mobile: 778.990.1320
Email: dstathonikos@bcrea.bc.ca |
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Breaking News from The Globe and Mail |
| Published: Sunday, September 20, 2009 |
HST to hit consumers hardest:
TD
Karen Howlett
Friday, September 18, 2009
Toronto – Consumers will bear the brunt of the Ontario and British Columbia governments' plans to harmonize their provincial sales taxes with the federal goods and services tax, a new report concludes. |
Businesses will be the big winners, as the combined tax reduces their costs by a total of $6.9-billion in Ontario and British Columbia, Toronto-Dominion Bank chief economist Don Drummond says in a report released on Friday.
But the tax burden will shift from businesses to consumers as they begin paying levies on a broad range of goods and services that are  now exempt, the report says. Businesses will pass on the majority of their cost savings to consumers, but the lower sticker prices will not fully offset the higher tax rate, the report says. As a result, the effective tax rate on consumption will increase by 1.5 percentage points in both provinces.
Harmonization does not take effect until next July 1 in the two provinces. But it is shaping up to be a major political headache for Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty and British Columbia Premier Gordon Campbell.
’In response to consumer concerns, we thought it would be worthwhile to highlight what implications the reform will have on Canadian households and inflation,’ Mr. Drummond says in the report.
The report was released one day after a by-election in Toronto, where the governing Liberals sailed to victory after the opposition candidates failed to turn the race into a referendum on the proposed harmonized sales tax.
The Ontario government announced in March that it plans to combine the 8 per cent provincial sales tax and the 5 per cent goods and services tax into a new value-added tax of 13 per cent.
British Columbia, looking to close a looming tax gap with Ontario, announced plans in July to create a harmonized sales tax of 12 per cent.
Harmonization is aimed at making businesses more competitive as both provinces struggle with slowing economies. But the McGuinty and Campbell governments are under siege for hitting consumers with a tax on everything from haircuts to new home purchases over $500,000. Both provinces have moved to douse a storm of criticism over the harmonized taxes by exempting a number of basic goods, including children's clothing and diapers.
© The Globe and Mail |
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Are Stable Real Estate Markets Coming Soon? |
| Published: Tuesday, May 26, 2009 |
| B.C.'s Real Estate Association Housing Forecast. |
May 26, 2009 Vancouver, BC As part of its Spring 2009 Housing Forecast, the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reported today that housing market conditions have improved more rapidly than expected.
As a result, BCREA has revised its home price forecast upwards, reflecting greater price stability through the balance of the year. The average Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential price in British Columbia is forecast to decline eight per cent to $420,600 in 2009, instead of 13 per cent originally forecasted at the beginning of the year.
The majority of the decline in home prices has already occurred, said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. Balanced markets are emerging in Victoria, Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. There’s now little downward pressure on home prices in these areas.
Home sales in the province have climbed out of a trough, posting double-digit percentage gains for three consecutive months (seasonally adjusted). BC MLS® residential sales are forecast  to decline 12 per cent to 60,755 units this year, as a result of a weak first quarter. However, stronger consumer demand is expected to continue for the balance of the year and through 2010. Residential sales in 2010 are forecast to climb 10 percent to 66,740 units.
Affordability reached a three-year high in April with lower home prices and record low interest rates reducing the carrying cost of the average priced home 24 per cent over the last year.
A significant increase in affordability has brought many first-time buyers into the market, added Muir. First-time buyers were largely absent in the late fall and winter, making it more difficult for move-up buyers to sell their current homes. The chain of ownership is now being oiled.
The full BCREA Housing Forecast is available at:
www.bcrea.bc.ca/economics/HousingForecast.pdf
For more information, please contact:
Cameron Muir
Chief Economist
Direct: 604.742.2780
Mobile: 778.229.1884
Email: cmuir@bcrea.bc.ca
Damian Stathonikos
Director of Communications and Public Affairs
Direct: 604.742.2793
Mobile: 778.990.1320
Email: dstathonikos@bcrea.bc.ca
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Bank of Canada sees quick recovery |
| Published: Thursday, January 22, 2009 |
| Paul Vieira , Financial Post
Published: Thursday, January 22, 2009 |
OTTAWA - Canada's economy is set to post healthy growth in the second half of 2009 and recover at a quicker pace than previous downturns on the basis of, among other things, "substantial" fiscal stimuli from the federal government, the Bank of Canada said in its updated outlook Thursday.
A quick recovery is anticipated even though the central bank  said the global economy is in the midst of a "deep" recession. Before that upswing takes effect, however, the Canadian economy will struggle mightily - posting a deep 4.8 per cent decline in the first quarter and report a worse-than-anticipated contraction of 2.3 per cent for the final three months of 2008.
A quick recovery is anticipated for Canada even though the central bank said the global economy is in the midst of a “deep” recession. Nevertheless, the bank suggested the Canadian recession would not be as painful as in other countries, with the economy reaching its full capacity during 2011 - up to two years earlier than what IHS Global Insight and Parliament's budget watchdog said in separate reports this week.
The latest central bank forecast, contained in its quarterly  monetary policy report, is based on a number of assumptions, among them a 82 cents US currency; an easing in the prices of non-energy commodities; tight credit conditions persisting in 2009 but improving gradually next year; and "substantial fiscal policy" in Canada and elsewhere.
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is set to unveil a multi-year fiscal stimulus package in his budget Tuesday, which is said to include money for infrastructure, tax cuts and changes to the Employment Insurance scheme. Analysts indicate the package could carry a price tag of up to $50 billion.
The central bank projects GDP to decline this year by 1.2 per cent before posting a robust gain of 3.8 per cent in 2010. In fleshing out its forecast, it envisages the current quarter to be the worst, with a steep decline in GDP of 4.8 per cent, followed by a second-quarter drop of one per cent. But the bank foresees solid growth in the third and fourth quarters of this year, of two per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively. As a result, the current recession will last three quarters, whereas the downturn in the early 1980s and 1990s lasted longer, at six and four quarters, respectively. It maintained in its outlook that total and core inflation should return to its preferred two per cent target in the first half of 2011, when the economy is expected to return to full capacity. Total inflation will dip below zero for the second and third quarters, but the outlook gave no indication of deflation worries as it believes fiscal stimuli will begin to take hold.
"The anticipated normalization of financial conditions of financial conditions, together with the stimulus coming from monetary and fiscal policies, should boost the growth of consumer spending in 2010," the bank's outlook said. "Exports are also expected to recover next year (increasing 2.1 per cent) as the U.S. economy strengthens and the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar stimulates foreign demand." The central bank's global forecast foresees growth of just 1.1 per cent this year, or at a "rate consistent with a deep global recession." The U.S. economy - Canada's biggest export market - is expected to decline through the first three quarters of 2009 and end the year with a drop of 1.7 per cent, before rebounding in 2010 with a 2.6 per cent gain. It suggested a recovery in the global economy is in the offing due to several factors: credit conditions begin to "normalize" following extraordinary government action; a pickup in domestic demand due to stimuli and lower interest rates; and an end to the U.S. housing correction.
"Strengthening U.S. GDP growth, and the accompanying improvement in consumer confidence, should also help to stimulate global economic activity through trade and financial linkages," the bank said.
The central bank said decisions to reduce its key interest rate by 350 basis points since December, 2007 - including a 50-basis-point cut this week to 1% - have been "timely" and "significant," and helped position Canada to "offset the economic downturn and promote conditions to support recovery."
© Canwest News Service 2009 |
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